We may have reached the peak of WNV risk in 2017. Cold, dry weeks have suppressed risk, but mosquito infection rates are still rising. There is concern, especially in the coming week, that end-of-summer and back-to-school events may expose individuals to more infected mosquitoes than usual, since both humans and mosquitoes may have been avoiding the unpleasant weather and will take advantage of a cooler week.
Most recent weekly forecast
Most recent seasonal forecast
Based on all data available August 14th, we expect to see 62 cases in SD in 2017. This forecast is slightly down from last week's prediction of 65 cases. We appear to be at the peak of the season and risk should begin declining, but weather may become more hospitable to the mosquito in late August. For the moment, we continue to predict that this will be an average year for WNV in SD, which means a substantial number of diagnosed cases and many subclinical infections.
South Dakota State University has partnered with the South Dakota Department of Health to implement a program of West Nile virus (WNV) research that will support public health decision makers at the state level and mosquito control programs at the local level. Major activities include mosquito surveillance and testing for WNV, monitoring environmental risk factors using data from earth observing satellites, and using this information to predict the risk of WNV to humans across the state. This work is supported in part by a grant from the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health and Air Quality Program (NNX15AF74G).